2024-06-28
Recently, the highly anticipated Wiki FINANCE EXPO 2024 TOKYO Station concluded successfully. The event attracted industry elites and scholars from Japan and received extensive and high praise coverage from more than thirty renowned media outlets, including Yahoo Finance, the Associated Press, Canada's Globe and Mail, Wall Street Insider, American Vanguard Evening News, Dow Jones MarketWatch, and Digital Journal.
The summit, themed“Express to Storm Center,” invited local Japanese financial experts, analysts, and industry leaders. The attendees analyzed the trends of the yen exchange rate considering global economic conditions, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors, offering their insights and suggestions. Through in-depth discussions and interactive exchanges, participants gained a clear understanding of the current state and future trends of the yen exchange rate.
柾木利彦(マーフィー): Do not try to find market advantages or disadvantages. The key economic indicators and events' scheduled announcement times are enough to understand the market. No one knows the market; the only way to understand it is to directly ask the market. Charts are the best way to ask the market.
黒田雄士: Fund management is not complicated. For fund management, I only stipulate that “the daily allowable loss is about 3% of the account principal” and consciously adjust the number of trades based on the normal stop-loss range. Dont overthink it; first, decide “how much you can lose in a day” and then stick to it thoroughly. This is a rule.
林貴晴: Do not stop the EA during the announcement of indicators. It has been fully verified through a large amount of data. I recommend not stopping the EA during indicator announcements unless you are a fundamental analysis expert. Otherwise, I suggest trusting the EA developer's optimized settings and keeping the EA running during indicator announcements.
Question 1 from Abdul Aziz: “What are the long-term impacts of the yen's weakness on Japan's domestic economy, including the banking industry and the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector?” 江守哲 responded as follows:
The yen's depreciation will increase the price competitiveness of Japanese products, boost exports, particularly in the automotive and electronics industries, and attract foreign investment, raising domestic investment returns. Tourism income is also expected to increase, though inflation risks will rise. In financial markets, greater forex volatility will make risk management more critical for investors and companies, enhancing the international competitiveness of Japanese financial institutions but also increasing the necessity for forex risk management. Concerning FDI, domestic companies may initially face cost disadvantages in overseas investments, making it harder to establish or expand markets and production bases. However, prolonged yen depreciation may stimulate direct overseas investment by Japanese companies, making their products and services more price competitive in global markets, potentially increasing sales and market share abroad.
Question 2 from Muhammad Rivan: “With the yen falling to a 34-year low against the USD, how do you view the impact of the Bank of Japan's dovish monetary policy on Japan's economic stability amid global uncertainties?” 小﨑太郎 responded:
Over the past two years, the yen has depreciated while the dollar appreciated due to the Japan-U.S. interest rate gap. Starting in 2024, the U.S. will maintain high-interest rates to combat inflation, while Japan has begun easing monetary policies. Despite the current situation making it hard to believe the Bank of Japan is taking steps to narrow the interest rate gap with the U.S., slightly raising the yen‘s exchange rate, the decline in Japan’s service industry due to internet services like Amazon and Netflix has contributed to yen weakness. Currently, yen depreciation is temporary; the optimal exchange rate is estimated at 120 yen. Regardless of central bank measures, the exchange rate will eventually return to this range. However, extreme fluctuations in exchange rates also impact financial markets, so the Bank of Japan's policies need to balance these factors.
Question 3 from Masatoshin10: “With signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, what will happen to the yens value during a U.S. economic recession?” 本間正樹responded:
My conclusion is that the yen will appreciate. A U.S. economic recession will narrow the interest rate gap, potentially affecting commodity prices and leading to dollar selling and yen buying. Given the stock market slump due to the U.S. recession, many are investing in European and U.S. markets through the new NISA system, leading to a slowdown in growth rates.
Question 4 from Benjamin Joseph Osizimethe: “Why is the yen always weak against the USD?” 柾木利彦(マーフィー)responded:
The yens depreciation is due to its economic fundamentals trending towards weakness. Market dynamics consist of two main parts: price and time. These factors are reflected in the charts showing dollar appreciation and yen depreciation.
Question 5 from Emily Jude Chibuike: “How does the yen exchange rate affect the competitiveness of Japanese industries (such as automotive and electronics) in the global market?”@FXで馬 responded:
Due to the long-term appreciation of the yen, many factories and production bases are located overseas. The recent yen depreciation means that domestic production in Japan is now more advantageous. However, if this continues long-term, it will become very severe.
Through the Expo, WikiEXPO invited top industry professionals to share trading techniques, market trends, and international policy interpretations, promoting knowledge sharing. This summit received extensive attention from authoritative media such as Yahoo Finance and the Associated Press. These media outlets comprehensively and deeply reported on the event through live reports, interviews, and commentary, promptly delivering the exciting content of the summit to global readers. Statistics show that over 600 media outlets reported on this summit, fully demonstrating WikiEXPOs international influence and appeal.
As a highly acclaimed financial industry exchange event, WikiEXPO has always been committed to gathering industry wisdom and sharing cutting-edge information. The successful hosting of this Tokyo Special Summit not only provided an exciting industry feast for the attendees but also further enhanced WikiEXPOs brand influence and industry status. In the future, WikiEXPO will continue to contribute to the healthy development and integrity of the industry.